As you may have already noticed, binary thinking forces you to divide information into only two specific categories, if that is acceptable of course. Beginners and inexperienced bettors think that a good bet can be considered the one that has the best chance of winning, even without considering the low odds. Correspondingly, a bad one, which has a low odds of winning. These nuances are not difficult for ordinary people, who are far from betting, to understand, because a similar distribution takes place in life.
However, for obvious reasons, this perception is completely wrong. There are especially many examples just from betting.
I’ll bet more on the favourite, even though the odds are small.
Athletes are the same kind of people, and may not be in the mood, may be slightly injured, or may simply be affected by the weather, preparation of the game conditions, and so on. So investing 10 million at 1.05% is as right as using submarines for Formula 1 races.
Express on favourites
Another terrible decision which has a good excuse: even if betting odds are minimal, but if you put 10-15 events on a pile, the total is good! If only there were a bigger stake, then this would be ideal! But no, the Parlay itself is regarded as a very risky bet, especially if it is prepared thoughtlessly. It’s much more dangerous to add events at paltry odds because there’s no profit to be had. That’s a 99% risk.
Belief in Contracts and Ties
In the first case, any option can be thrown in the trash and binary thinking is of no help. In the second, the assumptions fall into two categories: teams so weak or strong that they can’t win and the match will end in a draw. Where is the binary here? It’s simple, not only is a draw not a win for one of the teams, it’s also not a loss.
So what would be an ideal bet?
Thinking from a professional point of view, you have to put aside all biases and distinguish the line between winning and losing. The absence of various prejudices and belief in miracles, combined with a great strategy, are the main helpers in making a great bet. Often bettors use percentages, and on the one hand this is very correct. If a player’s analysis is more accurate than the betting company’s presented analysis, it means that in the long run it will be the pros who make money, constantly racking up the pros. Is it possible to do that? Of course it is, but you have to put as much attention and effort as possible, because in the case of an individual bettor, only he thinks, while in betting companies a lot of specialists, experienced and with the right skills, are responsible for the process.
EXPERT ADVICE ON BINARY THINKING
All modern psychologists consider that binary thinking is a rather negative process, which limits personal development and has a negative effect on decision making. That is why they highlight such ways to get rid of it:
One has to try something new. Some bettors just get hung up on the same things: betting on total less after the 70-75th minute, exact scores, and so on. You don’t want to complicate your life with this too, because analytics itself is a complicated process and it needs to be done with skill.
Get to know the successes and approaches of other bettors. You should never, under any circumstances, think that someone is better or worse. Even with the same strategy, the approach can still be different, and copying the careers of others is not a good idea. But it is still advisable to read the thoughts of pros, because you can take your mind off of binary thinking and become curious about other possibilities.
Curiosity must be “balanced” with seriousness. Even if there is a 90% chance of winning the bet, it is still worth looking around for additional data to analyse. Is your best player injured right before the game? You should react to it quickly! If a bet has already been made, then only live betting and keeping an eye on the right market to make the right bet for a win can help.
Forget about pathos and self-confidence. You don’t have to lose self-control for a minute, but you shouldn’t get overconfident either. When a bettor doesn’t believe in good strategies and knowledge, they can’t believe in success. Professionals, on the other hand, are overconfident and sometimes bet hastily, trusting in boundless experience.
And on a separate note is worth expert advice – accept the fact that uncertainty reigns in the world and in absolutely every area of life. Many things can be foreseen, but it is impossible to predict everything. Especially in betting, where luck has a place, but you should not fully rely on it.