In the case of casinos, the tendency to opt for simple categories allows you to master roulette and make money from it. As we know, this game is not considered to be the most profitable in terms of multiplying profits, but it is suitable for an example of binary thinking: black or red is a typical decision for gamblers.
Accordingly, we can assume that in theory some things can be greatly simplified. It is easy to think – one should only choose black or red and it will allow one to succeed. But everything is very ambiguous, because any decision must be accompanied by clarification of the situation, not random preferences. Therefore, binary thinking is about dividing the available information into two opposing options. To understand the whole point, here is a simple example. A bettor has found a match where there is a clear favourite and an outsider. Clearly, there can be no doubt in this case, but the pro thinks whether to bet with a handicap on the weak team. The odds on the favourite are miniscule, so the bettor decides to opt for a better option, according to his binary way of thinking. The choice is therefore between profit and common sense. But usually, everyone is inclined to increase the size of the bet, preferring to make a prediction on the favourite.
Binary thinking is actively used by everyone in rather primitive situations: buying something you want/saving and getting a cheaper counterpart, doing things now or tomorrow, learning English, or looking for excuses and procrastination. In casinos the situation is much easier, but only at first glance – in blackjack you have to choose whether to draw a card or stop, in roulette, as mentioned above: black or red. In betting it’s a bit more complicated, because the diversity of betting slots is astounding, and you can find at least 5-10 variants of betting on just one game. But all the same, binary thinking applies here as well.
It is worth understanding that the very principle of the binary theory is the simplicity of making instant decisions. However, the bettor is faced with a lot of opportunities that are not restricted to certain conditions in the “Yes or No” format. There may still be a chance to take advantage of such simplicity in live-betting, but it is better to proceed with a strategy and tactics that allow for success without becoming a random decision maker.
BINARY THINKING BIAS
In every situation, binary thinking is not used to its maximum usefulness or effectiveness. For example, I want to buy a gym membership. There are two options: I will not buy because it’s expensive, or I will definitely take it, because health is more expensive. All other decisions should be attributed to prejudices and excuses. If a person has never been to the gym, they will be anxious about many questions: “can I do it?”, “how much time will it take?”, “will I be able to combine work and training?”. And the athletes themselves, who have taken a break, are unlikely to be able to answer these questions, because essentially there are already some achievements, so why change anything? It’s rather simple and crude, but it describes additional thinking. Binary thinking is simpler: yes I will buy, then we’ll see, I won’t buy a season ticket, somehow later. A person will definitely forget everything after making a decision and start studying or go on living the way they have been living.
There are also many nuances in betting
Binary thinking is imprecise
It may be easier to think about outbidding the favourite without even doing a match analysis. However, there will still be doubts, no matter how good shape a strong team is in. Moreover, sport is a lottery, where there is always the risk of losing money through sensationalism. Better then to trust the machine algorithm, but only if it is proven and gives results.
Using binary thinking, you can only get hung up on assumptions. As you know, probability seeking is considered one of the most important metrics in betting. Theories are built on assumptions and choices are made as a result. But not all professionals will analyze the situation in terms of a “will they or won’t they” only. They take into account a lot of other factors. It is only when they are taken as a whole that they give results.
The most significant enemy of the bettor. When there is only one assumption, that Team A will win, because it is the leader and the player himself likes, then the other decisions will take second place. There will be no desire to even take an interest in other options and study different nuances.
It is also possible to supplement the last point with the following observations. Binary bias is defined in the propensity to use significant differences according to continuous data. This information is further subdivided into subcategories from which the final opinion is derived.
In simple terms, some bettors tend to ignore the strength of the information presented, agreeing with other data. For example, a player analyses a tennis match and sees a clear favourite, on which he wants to bet. However, information pops up that the tennis player may “blow” the game in order to better prepare for a more serious tournament. As a result, the bettor decides to bet on the underdog, the favourite takes to the court and puts his best foot forward, which results in losing the bet. Of course it could have gone the other way, but then again, no one knows exactly how any particular game will play out. Otherwise betting shops would simply disappear because of the predictability of sporting events.
Binary bias is often seen on social media or on various websites that offer a huge range of decisions to choose from. A simple example: a rating scale consists of 10 points to determine true satisfaction with an offer. As a rule, it is only rarely that people choose anything other than the minimum and maximum score. Therefore, the effectiveness of the approach is low and can be limited to a binary approach: Like/Dislike.