This is the only way to really have a chance of winning at the betting shops. As you know, in order to make the profits you want, you need to cover the margin. This is not an easy task and it will take a lot of calculating, thinking, working out a plan of action, which will enable you to earn steadily and a lot, somewhere between 10-20%. The uncertainty rate decides the rest.
So what is it and why is it mentioned in the context of betting companies? Everyone knows about professionalism of betting companies, which are not going to work at a loss. That is why companies try to foresee all the uncertainties, overlaying it with odds and margins. Newcomers are constantly falling for it and the tactic of “I bet on favourites, that is, the lowest odds!” will probably never go out of fashion. It’s a horrendous variant that I can’t really call a strategy. But it still thrives and makes bookies a lot of money. Yes, exactly in that format, because betting at 1.01-1.2 doesn’t even make millions. That’s why newbies add another option to their tactics to drain money fast – expresses. When there are 3-7 events with low odds in a Coupon, the total will also not exceed 2-3. Each individual outcome is considered an additional risk, even when playing favourites, against teams in the 10-20 league, if there are any of course. There is a chance of winning and a chance of losing by a factor of 10.
Trying to reduce the uncertainty is feasible, but when examining the issue in detail, it becomes clear that the bookmaker has a better chance in this regard, accordingly there is already asymmetry at this stage. Many companies promise that all opportunities are distributed in such a way that each side has the same options for earning, i.e. 50/50. The more brazen ones specify 60-40 in favour of bettors, but everyone should finally realise that no gambling platform would exist in the market losing money all the time. It can’t be considered cheating, because the principle is simple – you want to bet or you don’t bet. Asymmetry is a delicate matter and is present in almost every sphere of activity. The uncertainty can be of such types.
In this case the uncertainty is considered natural, i.e. it is caused by probability variations. For example, a tennis player has a strong serve which brings him 10-15 aces per set. The probability of repeats decreases according to the time of the match – the more a player plays, the less power he has accordingly. Additionally there is the uncertainty of getting hurt/not getting hurt. In simple terms, it is impossible to predict the course of the match. That’s why statistical uncertainty is unaffected. Many will argue and say that with enough information, it is quite realistic to calculate everything. But even a change in wind direction or other such factors affect the probability of winning. No one knows what will happen in a match. From a technical point of view, there are no difficulties – go out, play, win/lose. But in reality it is much more complicated than that.
Here it’s simple: the athlete/team wins or not. That is, the odds of the bettor winning are 0% or 100%. 50% is respectively responsible for the return. True uncertainty, like probability, is not subject to analysis. In this case, the player can only reason based on assumptions. That is why such bets will be rather on luck, which is often used by beginners and even pros.
When you understand the model, that is all the information you need to make a prediction, it is easy to make a correct one, at least at first glance. But often even a correct prediction is not profitable, for various reasons. The bettor, for instance, is sure that Barcelona will beat Eibar for sure. He appropriately understands the model – Barcelona must win to win the league or the cup, there are no injuries, and the squad is in a good shape. The bet is made and it is only a matter of time. However, in training right before the game 2 of Barcelona’s best players get injured. Who could have known about it? That’s right, there are no such people. Accordingly, one moment affected the probability, ending in uncertainty.
It is extremely difficult to see how much of the outcome will be determined by a particular type of uncertainty. Although it is possible to account for it, but again, the risks are enormous and the chances are close to zero.