At the beginning of the season it is wise to back your favourites and bank on a few extra plays to get a taste of the season, as teams are often already in a lean season and losing points early in the season. With a few games left to play, it’s better to stick with the underdogs and the clubs fighting for survival.
There is no point in predicting the favourites, if they are already guaranteed first place just a few rounds before the end of the tournament. The same goes for underdogs, who are firmly planted in the middle of the table and do not have any additional goals. On a separate note there is the financial issue – why should the top clubs spend money on bonuses when they can keep players with big contracts on offer. Besides, many favourites sometimes rotate to save their strength for other tournaments.
As for the calendar and schedule, that’s also an important indicator. The top clubs, although they have a great squad, they also have a lot more matches to play. Therefore teams try to prioritize as follows:
- European Cups;
- domestic championship;
- cup confrontations and additional tournaments.
Despite this division, it does not always apply. For example, if a club has lost all its chances in European competitions and the national championship, the emphasis will be on the cup.
LINE-UP, PLAYING FORM AND WIN/LOSS STREAK
Experienced bettors, apart from the motivation and the calendar, always look at the line-up of the teams. This refers not only to the starting line-up, but also to the performance of the players, even in a specific match against a particular opponent. The main indicators to pay attention to are
Playing time
There are some players, for whom even minor injuries do not prevent them from playing at a high level. When choosing a bet, it is better to have the base team and all the strong players. It is not uncommon for the reserves to want to prove themselves, so they are sometimes considered a bargaining chip. But a played core will of course always give the best results.
Injuries and disqualifications
This factor influences the previous one, because as soon as you lose a few leaders, the game will change, and not always for the better.
Transfers
It is not uncommon for a team to suspend a player for disciplinary or other offences, even if he is a good player with a name. Without analysis it is possible to bet on a team in the hope that a relegated player will score a few goals and he won’t be at the match.
Also the form of the team and the win/loss streak have a big influence on the final result. It would seem that how can a club, which has won 10 times in a row without any problems before, lose? But then again, if you don’t go into details, you might not notice that the calendar favoured the team and that the opponents were only outsiders or generally amateurs, with whom they decided to play as a charity match.
The best solution is to identify all the reasons that led to a certain series and it’s important to try to find the correlation. If a team has won 10 games in a row, and the opponents have been strong and weak, it means that the team is “on the run” and in good form. What leads to a losing streak is already clear: Injuries, conflicts, wage arrears and more.
WHAT TO DO WHEN YOU’RE BEATEN?
It’s worth touching on this issue as many newcomers, who have started out winning consistently and have been lucky enough to get by with just basic stats, immediately try to act more brazenly. In this case, lack of strategy, reliance on luck and other folk traditions, can lead to a collapse at some point. The most basic misconceptions are:
- “I’ve been watching the English Premier League since I was 10 years old and I know everything!”
- “I’m a fan of one team, so I don’t need any line-up studies, I know what I’m doing”;
- I’ve already won 20 bets and lost 3 times, why do I need analytics when the statistics from the latest games is enough?
These are just the main theses, in which many bettors recognize themselves at different periods of activity. As a rule, several wins in a row cloud your head even more than trying to win back. In any case, there is no need to lose your mind and continue to pursue your goal using the strategy you have established. It is not advisable to blindly believe the arguments of experts about this or that tactic, because no one forbids changing everything on an individual basis.
CONCLUSION
Evaluating football matches to make a great and winning bet is indeed necessary. Even if you know more than you would expect and know all the players of 20 teams in a particular championship, you should not be complacent. It’s an added advantage, but by no means an indication that any bet will be a winning one. Therefore it is necessary to look at the matches with an open mind and from different angles. Only a detailed analysis will determine the ideal or close to it outcome. Therefore, it is highly recommended to be careful and meticulous when making predictions, so you don’t make mistakes and lose large sums of money.